Jobs Index in U.S. Increases for First Time in More Than a Year

By Bob Willis

Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- A measure of U.S. job prospects rose in September for the first time in more than a year, a sign job losses may not keep accelerating, a private survey showed.

The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index rose 0.3 to 88.5, the first increase since January 2008 and the highest level since April, the New York-based private research group said today. The reading was down 16 percent from a year ago.

A government report last week showed payrolls in September fell more than forecast, a sign the economic recovery may be slow to gain speed. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week said joblessness would remain above 9 percent through next year, indicating the central bank wouldn’t move quickly to drain cash from the economy.

The index “suggests that the trend of declining job losses will continue,” Gad Levanon, a senior economist at the Conference Board, said in a statement. “But the road to recovery is definitely going to be bumpy and may last unusually long, given the depth of the recession we have experienced.”

The index aggregates eight labor-market indicators to forecast short-term hiring trends. On average, the gauge can predict job declines six to nine months in advance and can signal a rebound in hiring as many as three months before the fact, the Conference Board said.

Payrolls fell by 263,000 last month after a 201,000 drop in August, according to Labor Department figures released on Oct. 2. The unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent from 9.7 percent.

The economy has lost 7.2 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the biggest drop since the Great Depression.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net